Trends in the incidence of diagnosed diabetes: a multicountry analysis of aggregate data from 22 million diagnoses in high-income and middle-income settings
Por:
Magliano, DJ, Chen, L, Islam, RM, Carstensen, B, Gregg, EW, Pavkov, ME, Andes, LJ, Balicer, R, Baviera, M, Boersma-van Dam, E, Booth, GL, Chan, JCN, Chua, YX, Fosse-Edorh, S, Fuentes, S, Gulseth, HL, Gurevicius, R, Ha, KH, Hird, TR, Jermendy, G, Khalangot, MD, Kim, DJ, Kiss, Z, Kravchenko, VI, Leventer-Roberts, M, Lin, CY, Luk, AOY, Mata-Cases, M, Mauricio, D, Nichols, GA, Nielen, MM, Pang, D, Paul, SK, Pelletier, C, Pildava, S, Porath, A, Read, SH, Roncaglioni, MC, Ruiz, PLD, Shestakova, M, Vikulova, O, Wang, KL, Wild, SH, Yekutiel, N, Shaw, JE
Publicada:
1 abr 2021
Ahead of Print:
1 mar 2021
Resumen:
Background Diabetes prevalence is increasing in most places in the world, but prevalence is affected by both risk of developing diabetes and survival of those with diabetes. Diabetes incidence is a better metric to understand the trends in population risk of diabetes. Using a multicountry analysis, we aimed to ascertain whether the incidence of clinically diagnosed diabetes has changed over time.
Methods In this multicountry data analysis, we assembled aggregated data describing trends in diagnosed total or type 2 diabetes incidence from 24 population-based data sources in 21 countries or jurisdictions. Data were from administrative sources, health insurance records, registries, and a health survey. We modelled incidence rates with Poisson regression, using age and calendar time (1995-2018) as variables, describing the effects with restricted cubic splines with six knots for age and calendar time.
Findings Our data included about 22 million diabetes diagnoses from 5 billion person-years of follow-up. Data were from 19 high-income and two middle-income countries or jurisdictions. 23 data sources had data from 2010 onwards, among which 19 had a downward or stable trend, with an annual estimated change in incidence ranging from -1.1% to -10.8%. Among the four data sources with an increasing trend from 2010 onwards, the annual estimated change ranged from 0.9% to 5.6%. The findings were robust to sensitivity analyses excluding data sources in which the data quality was lower and were consistent in analyses stratified by different diabetes definitions.
Interpretation The incidence of diagnosed diabetes is stabilising or declining in many high-income countries. The reasons for the declines in the incidence of diagnosed diabetes warrant further investigation with appropriate data sources. Copyright (C) 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Filiaciones:
Magliano, DJ:
Baker Heart & Diabet Inst, Dept Diabet & Populat Hlth, Melbourne, Vic 3004, Australia
Monash Univ, Sch Publ Hlth & Prevent Med, Melbourne, Vic, Australia
Chen, L:
Baker Heart & Diabet Inst, Dept Diabet & Populat Hlth, Melbourne, Vic 3004, Australia
Islam, RM:
Monash Univ, Sch Publ Hlth & Prevent Med, Melbourne, Vic, Australia
Carstensen, B:
Steno Diabet Ctr Copenhagen, Clin Epidemiol, Gentofte, Denmark
Gregg, EW:
Imperial Coll London, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Epidemiol & Biostat, London, England
Pavkov, ME:
Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Div Diabet Translat, Atlanta, GA USA
Andes, LJ:
Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Div Diabet Translat, Atlanta, GA USA
Balicer, R:
Clalit Hlth Serv, Clalit Res Inst, Tel Aviv, Israel
Baviera, M:
Mario Negri Inst Pharmacol Res IRCCS, Lab Cardiovasc Prevent, Milan, Italy
Boersma-van Dam, E:
Netherlands Inst Hlth Serv Res, Dept Gen Practice, Utrecht, Netherlands
Booth, GL:
Univ Toronto, Dept Med, Toronto, ON, Canada
Chan, JCN:
Chinese Univ Hong Kong, Dept Med & Therapeut, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
Chua, YX:
Minist Hlth, Epidemiol & Dis Control Div, Publ Hlth Grp, Singapore, Singapore
Fosse-Edorh, S:
Sante Publ France, Dept Noncommunicable Dis & Trauma, St Maurice, France
Fuentes, S:
Sante Publ France, Dept Noncommunicable Dis & Trauma, St Maurice, France
Gulseth, HL:
Norwegian Inst Publ Hlth, Dept Chron Dis & Ageing, Oslo, Norway
Gurevicius, R:
Inst Hyg, Ctr Hlth Informat, Vilnius, Lithuania
Mykolas Romeris Univ, Fac Publ Governance & Business, Vilnius, Lithuania
Ha, KH:
Ajou Univ, Dept Endocrinol & Metab, Sch Med, Suwon, South Korea
Hird, TR:
Baker Heart & Diabet Inst, Dept Diabet & Populat Hlth, Melbourne, Vic 3004, Australia
Monash Univ, Sch Publ Hlth & Prevent Med, Melbourne, Vic, Australia
Jermendy, G:
Bajcsy Zsilinszky Hosp, Med Dept 3, Budapest, Hungary
Khalangot, MD:
Natl Acad Med Sci, Komisarenko Inst Endocrinol & Metab, Kiev, Ukraine
Shupyk Natl Med Acad Postgrad Educ, Endocrinol Dept, Kiev, Ukraine
Kim, DJ:
Ajou Univ, Dept Endocrinol & Metab, Sch Med, Suwon, South Korea
Kiss, Z:
Univ Pecs, Med Fac, Dept Med 2, Pecs, Hungary
Univ Pecs, Med Fac, Nephrol Ctr, Pecs, Hungary
Kravchenko, VI:
Natl Acad Med Sci, Komisarenko Inst Endocrinol & Metab, Kiev, Ukraine
Leventer-Roberts, M:
Clalit Hlth Serv, Clalit Res Inst, Tel Aviv, Israel
Icahn Sch Med Mt Sinai, Dept Pediat, New York, NY 10029 USA
Icahn Sch Med Mt Sinai, Dept Environm Med & Publ Hlth, New York, NY 10029 USA
Lin, CY:
Taipei Vet Gen Hosp, Gen Clin Res Ctr, Taipei, Taiwan
Luk, AOY:
Chinese Univ Hong Kong, Dept Med & Therapeut, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
Mata-Cases, M:
Inst Salud Carlos III, CIBER Diabet & Associated Metab Dis, Barcelona, Spain
Inst Univ Invest Atencio Primaria Jordi Gol, Inst Catala Salut, DAP Cat Grp, Unitat Suport Recerca Barcelona Ciutat, Barcelona, Spain
Mauricio, D:
Inst Salud Carlos III, CIBER Diabet & Associated Metab Dis, Barcelona, Spain
Inst Univ Invest Atencio Primaria Jordi Gol, Inst Catala Salut, DAP Cat Grp, Unitat Suport Recerca Barcelona Ciutat, Barcelona, Spain
Autonomous Univ Barcelona, Dept Endocrinol & Nutr, Hosp Santa Creu & St Pau, Barcelona, Spain
Nichols, GA:
Kaiser Permanente Ctr Hlth Res, Sci Programs Dept, Portland, OR USA
Nielen, MM:
Netherlands Inst Hlth Serv Res, Dept Gen Practice, Utrecht, Netherlands
Pang, D:
Minist Hlth, Epidemiol & Dis Control Div, Publ Hlth Grp, Singapore, Singapore
Paul, SK:
Univ Melbourne, Melbourne EpiCtr, Melbourne, Vic, Australia
Pelletier, C:
Publ Hlth Agcy Canada, Ctr Surveillance & Appl Res, Ottawa, ON, Canada
Pildava, S:
Ctr Dis Prevent & Control, Res & Hlth Stat Dept, Riga, Latvia
Porath, A:
Maccabi Healthcare Serv, Res Inst, Tel Aviv, Israel
Ben Gurion Univ Negev, Fac Hlth, Beer Sheva, Israel
Read, SH:
Univ Edinburgh, Usher Inst, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland
Roncaglioni, MC:
Mario Negri Inst Pharmacol Res IRCCS, Lab Cardiovasc Prevent, Milan, Italy
Ruiz, PLD:
Norwegian Inst Publ Hlth, Dept Chron Dis & Ageing, Oslo, Norway
Oslo Univ Hosp, Dept Endocrinol Morbid Obes & Prevent Med, Oslo, Norway
Shestakova, M:
Endocrinol Res Ctr, Diabet Inst, Moscow, Russia
Vikulova, O:
Endocrinol Res Ctr, Diabet Inst, Moscow, Russia
Wang, KL:
Taipei Vet Gen Hosp, Gen Clin Res Ctr, Taipei, Taiwan
Wild, SH:
Univ Edinburgh, Usher Inst, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland
Yekutiel, N:
Maccabi Healthcare Serv, Res Inst, Tel Aviv, Israel
Shaw, JE:
Baker Heart & Diabet Inst, Dept Diabet & Populat Hlth, Melbourne, Vic 3004, Australia
Monash Univ, Sch Publ Hlth & Prevent Med, Melbourne, Vic, Australia
La Trobe Univ, Sch Life Sci, Bundoora, Vic, Australia
Green Submitted
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