Scenarios for population health inequalities in 2030 in Europe: the EURO-HEALTHY project experience
Por:
Alvarenga, A, Costa, CABE, Borrell, C, Ferreira, PL, Freitas, A, Freitas, L, Oliveira, MD, Rodrigues, TC, Santana, P, Santos, ML, Vieira, ACL
Publicada:
25 jun 2019
Resumen:
BackgroundHealth inequalities have been consistently reported across and within European countries and continue to pose major challenges to policy-making. The development of scenarios regarding what could affect population health (PH) inequalities across Europe in the future is considered critical. Scenarios can help policy-makers prepare and better cope with fast evolving challenges.ObjectiveThis paper describes the three 2030 time-horizon scenarios developed under the EURO-HEALTHY project, depicting the key factors that may affect the evolution of PH inequalities across European regions.MethodsA three-stage socio-technical approach was applied: i) identification of drivers (key factors expected to affect the evolution of PH inequalities across European regions until 2030) - this stage engaged in a Web-Delphi process a multidisciplinary panel of 51 experts and other stakeholders representing the different perspectives regarding PH inequalities; ii) generation of scenario structures -different drivers' configurations (i.e. their hypotheses for evolution) were organized into coherent scenario structures using the Extreme-World Method; and iii) validation of scenario structures and generation of scenario narratives. Stages ii) and iii) were conducted in two workshops with a strategic group of 13 experts with a wide view about PH inequalities. The scenario narratives were elaborated with the participants' insights from both the Web-Delphi process and the two workshops, together with the use of evidence (both current and future-oriented) on the different areas within the PH domain.ResultsThree scenarios were developed for the evolution of PH inequalities in Europe until 2030: Failing Europe' (worst-case but plausible picture of the future), Sustainable Prosperity' (best-case but plausible picture of the future), and an interim scenario Being Stuck' depicting a to the best of our knowledge' evolution. These scenarios show the extent to which a combination of Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal and Environmental drivers shape future health inequalities, providing information for European policy-makers to reflect upon whether and how to design robust policy solutions to tackle PH inequalities.ConclusionsThe EURO-HEALTHY scenarios were designed to inform both policy design and appraisal. They broaden the scope, create awareness and generate insights regarding the evolution of PH inequalities across European regions.
Filiaciones:
Alvarenga, A:
ALVA Res & Consulting, Lisbon, Portugal
Univ Lisbon, Inst Super Tecn, Ctr Management Studies, CEG IST, Av Rovisco Pais, P-1049001 Lisbon, Portugal
Univ Nova Lisboa, Inst Contemporary Hist, IHC, Lisbon, Portugal
Univ Nova Lisboa, Nova Sch Business & Econ, Campus Carcavelos,Rua Holanda 1, P-2775405 Carcavelos, Portugal
Univ Lisbon, Lisbon Sch Econ & Management, ISEG, Lisbon, Portugal
Costa, CABE:
Univ Lisbon, Inst Super Tecn, Ctr Management Studies, CEG IST, Av Rovisco Pais, P-1049001 Lisbon, Portugal
Borrell, C:
Agencia Salut Publ Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
CIBER Epidemiol & Publ Hlth CIBERESP, Madrid, Spain
Ferreira, PL:
Univ Coimbra, Ctr Hlth Studies & Res CEISUC, Coimbra, Portugal
Freitas, A:
Univ Coimbra, Ctr Studies Geog & Spatial Planning CEGOT, Coimbra, Portugal
Freitas, L:
Univ Lisbon, Inst Super Tecn, Ctr Management Studies, CEG IST, Av Rovisco Pais, P-1049001 Lisbon, Portugal
Oliveira, MD:
Univ Lisbon, Inst Super Tecn, Ctr Management Studies, CEG IST, Av Rovisco Pais, P-1049001 Lisbon, Portugal
Rodrigues, TC:
Univ Lisbon, Inst Super Tecn, Ctr Management Studies, CEG IST, Av Rovisco Pais, P-1049001 Lisbon, Portugal
Santana, P:
Univ Coimbra, Ctr Studies Geog & Spatial Planning CEGOT, Coimbra, Portugal
Santos, ML:
ALVA Res & Consulting, Lisbon, Portugal
Vieira, ACL:
Univ Lisbon, Inst Super Tecn, Ctr Management Studies, CEG IST, Av Rovisco Pais, P-1049001 Lisbon, Portugal
Gold, Green Published
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