Lifetime risk, life expectancy, and years of life lost to type 2 diabetes in 23 high-income jurisdictions: a multinational, population-based study
Por:
Tomic D., Morton J.I., Chen L., Salim A., Gregg E.W., Pavkov M.E., Arffman M., Balicer R., Baviera M., Boersma-van Dam E., Brinks R., Carstensen B., Chan J.C.N., Cheng Y.J., Fosse-Edorh S., Fuentes S., Gardiner H., Gulseth H.L., Gurevicius R., Ha K.H., Hoyer A., Jermendy G., Kautzky-Willer A., Keskimäki I., Kim D.J., Kiss Z., Klimek P., Leventer-Roberts M., Lin C.-Y., Lopez-Doriga Ruiz P., Luk A.O.Y., Ma S., Mata-Cases M., Mauricio D., McGurnaghan S., Imamura T., Paul S.K., Peeters A., Pildava S., Porath A., Robitaille C., Roncaglioni M.C., Sugiyama T., Wang K.-L., Wild S.H., Yekutiel N., Shaw J.E., Magliano D.J.
Publicada:
1 ene 2022
Resumen:
Background: Diabetes is a major public health issue. Because lifetime risk, life expectancy, and years of life lost are meaningful metrics for clinical decision making, we aimed to estimate these measures for type 2 diabetes in the high-income setting. Methods: For this multinational, population-based study, we sourced data from 24 databases for 23 jurisdictions (either whole countries or regions of a country): Australia; Austria; Canada; Denmark; Finland; France; Germany; Hong Kong; Hungary; Israel; Italy; Japan; Latvia; Lithuania; the Netherlands; Norway; Scotland; Singapore; South Korea; Spain; Taiwan; the UK; and the USA. Our main outcomes were lifetime risk of type 2 diabetes, life expectancy in people with and without type 2 diabetes, and years of life lost to type 2 diabetes. We modelled the incidence and mortality of type 2 diabetes in people with and without type 2 diabetes in sex-stratified, age-adjusted, and calendar year-adjusted Poisson models for each jurisdiction. Using incidence and mortality, we constructed life tables for people of both sexes aged 20–100 years for each jurisdiction and at two timepoints 5 years apart in the period 2005–19 where possible. Life expectancy from a given age was computed as the area under the survival curves and lifetime lost was calculated as the difference between the expected lifetime of people with versus without type 2 diabetes at a given age. Lifetime risk was calculated as the proportion of each cohort who developed type 2 diabetes between the ages of 20 years and 100 years. We estimated 95% CIs using parametric bootstrapping. Findings: Across all study cohorts from the 23 jurisdictions (total person-years 1 577 234 194), there were 5 119 585 incident cases of type 2 diabetes, 4 007 064 deaths in those with type 2 diabetes, and 11 854 043 deaths in those without type 2 diabetes. The lifetime risk of type 2 diabetes ranged from 16·3% (95% CI 15·6–17·0) for Scottish women to 59·6% (58·5–60·8) for Singaporean men. Lifetime risk declined with time in 11 of the 15 jurisdictions for which two timepoints were studied. Among people with type 2 diabetes, the highest life expectancies were found for both sexes in Japan in 2017–18, where life expectancy at age 20 years was 59·2 years (95% CI 59·2–59·3) for men and 64·1 years (64·0–64·2) for women. The lowest life expectancy at age 20 years with type 2 diabetes was observed in 2013–14 in Lithuania (43·7 years [42·7–44·6]) for men and in 2010–11 in Latvia (54·2 years [53·4–54·9]) for women. Life expectancy in people with type 2 diabetes increased with time for both sexes in all jurisdictions, except for Spain and Scotland. The life expectancy gap between those with and without type 2 diabetes declined substantially in Latvia from 2010–11 to 2015–16 and in the USA from 2009–10 to 2014–15. Years of life lost to type 2 diabetes ranged from 2·5 years (Latvia; 2015–16) to 12·9 years (Israel Clalit Health Services; 2015–16) for 20-year-old men and from 3·1 years (Finland; 2011–12) to 11·2 years (Israel Clalit Health Services; 2010–11 and 2015–16) for 20-year-old women. With time, the expected number of years of life lost to type 2 diabetes decreased in some jurisdictions and increased in others. The greatest decrease in years of life lost to type 2 diabetes occurred in the USA between 2009–10 and 2014–15 for 20-year-old men (a decrease of 2·7 years). Interpretation: Despite declining lifetime risk and improvements in life expectancy for those with type 2 diabetes in many high-income jurisdictions, the burden of type 2 diabetes remains substantial. Public health strategies might benefit from tailored approaches to continue to improve health outcomes for people with diabetes. Funding: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Diabetes Australia. © 2022 Elsevier Ltd
Filiaciones:
Tomic D.:
Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
Morton J.I.:
Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
Centre for Medicine Use and Safety, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
Chen L.:
Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
Salim A.:
Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
Gregg E.W.:
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
Pavkov M.E.:
Division of Diabetes Translation, Centers for Diseases Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, United States
Arffman M.:
Welfare State Research and Reform, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, Helsinki, Finland
Balicer R.:
Clalit Research Institute, Clalit Health Services, Tel Aviv, Israel
Baviera M.:
Laboratory of Cardiovascular Prevention, Mario Negri Institute for Pharmacological Research, IRCCS, Milan, Italy
Boersma-van Dam E.:
Department of General Practice, Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research, Utrecht, Netherlands
Brinks R.:
Institute for Biometrics and Epidemiology, German Diabetes Center, Duesseldorf, Germany
Institute for Medical Biometry and Epidemiology, University Witten/Herdecke, Witten, Germany
Carstensen B.:
Clinical Epidemiology, Steno Diabetes Center Copenhagen, Herlev, Denmark
Chan J.C.N.:
Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, Li Ka Shing Institute of Health Sciences, Hong Kong Institute of Diabetes and Obesity, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Prince of Wales Hospital, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
Cheng Y.J.:
Division of Diabetes Translation, Centers for Diseases Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, United States
Fosse-Edorh S.:
Department of Non-Communicable Diseases and Trauma, Santé Publique France, Saint-Maurice, France
Fuentes S.:
Department of Non-Communicable Diseases and Trauma, Santé Publique France, Saint-Maurice, France
Gardiner H.:
Centre for Surveillance and Applied Research, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
Gulseth H.L.:
Department for Chronic Diseases, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
Gurevicius R.:
Center of Health Information, Institute of Hygiene, Vilnius, Lithuania
Faculty of Public Governance and Business, Mykolas Romeris University, Vilnius, Lithuania
Ha K.H.:
Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Ajou University School of Medicine, Suwon, South Korea
Hoyer A.:
Biostatistics and Medical Biometry, Medical School EWL, Bielefeld University, Bielefeld, Germany
Jermendy G.:
Third Medical Department, Bajcsy-Zsilinszky Hospital, Budapest, Hungary
Kautzky-Willer A.:
Department of Medicine III, Endocrinology and Metabolism, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
Gender Institute, Gars am Kamp, Austria
Keskimäki I.:
Welfare State Research and Reform, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, Helsinki, Finland
Faculty of Social Sciences, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland
Kim D.J.:
Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Ajou University School of Medicine, Suwon, South Korea
Kiss Z.:
Second Department of Medicine and Nephrological Center, University of Pécs, Pécs, Hungary
Klimek P.:
Section for Science of Complex Systems, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
Complexity Science Hub Vienna, Vienna, Austria
Leventer-Roberts M.:
Clalit Research Institute, Clalit Health Services, Tel Aviv, Israel
Department of Pediatrics, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, United States
Department of Environmental Medicine and Public Health, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, United States
Lin C.-Y.:
General Clinical Research Center, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
Lopez-Doriga Ruiz P.:
Department for Chronic Diseases, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
Department of Endocrinology, Morbid Obesity and Preventive Medicine, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway
Luk A.O.Y.:
Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, Li Ka Shing Institute of Health Sciences, Hong Kong Institute of Diabetes and Obesity, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Prince of Wales Hospital, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
Ma S.:
Epidemiology and Disease Control Division, Public Health Group, Ministry of Health, Singapore
Mata-Cases M.:
CIBER of Diabetes and Associated Metabolic Diseases, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Barcelona, Spain
Institut Català de la Salut, Unitat de Suport a la Recerca Barcelona Ciutat, Institut Universitari d'Investigació en Atenció Primària Jordi Gol, Barcelona, Spain
Mauricio D.:
CIBER of Diabetes and Associated Metabolic Diseases, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Barcelona, Spain
Institut Català de la Salut, Unitat de Suport a la Recerca Barcelona Ciutat, Institut Universitari d'Investigació en Atenció Primària Jordi Gol, Barcelona, Spain
Department of Endocrinology, Hospital de la Santa Creu I Sant Pau, Autonomous University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
McGurnaghan S.:
Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
Imamura T.:
Department of Public Health, Health Management and Policy, Nara Medical University, Nara, Japan
Paul S.K.:
Department of Medicine, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
Peeters A.:
Institute for Health Transformation, Deakin University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
Pildava S.:
Research and Health Statistics Department, Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Riga, Latvia
Porath A.:
Research Institute, Maccabi Healthcare Services, Tel Aviv, Israel
Faculty of Health Sciences, Ben Gurion University, Beer-Sheva, Israel
Robitaille C.:
Centre for Surveillance and Applied Research, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
Roncaglioni M.C.:
Laboratory of Cardiovascular Prevention, Mario Negri Institute for Pharmacological Research, IRCCS, Milan, Italy
Sugiyama T.:
Diabetes and Metabolism Information Center, Research Institute, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
Institute for Global Health Policy Research, Bureau of International Health Cooperation, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
Department of Health Services Research, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
Wang K.-L.:
General Clinical Research Center, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
Wild S.H.:
Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
Yekutiel N.:
Research Institute, Maccabi Healthcare Services, Tel Aviv, Israel
Shaw J.E.:
Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
Magliano D.J.:
Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
All Open Access; Green
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