Determinants of the current and future distribution of the West Nile virus mosquito vector Culex pipiens in Spain
Por:
Gangoso, L, Aragones, D, Martinez-de la Puente, J, Lucientes, J, Delacour-Estrella, S, Pena, RE, Montalvo, T, Bueno-Mari, R, Bravo-Barriga, D, Frontera, E, Marques, E, Ruiz-Arrondo, I, Munoz, A, Oteo, JA, Miranda, MA, Barcelo, C, Vazquez, MSA, Silva-Torres, MI, Ferraguti, M, Magallanes, S, Muriel, J, Marzal, A, Aranda, C, Ruiz, S, Gonzalez, MA, Morchon, R, Gomez-Barroso, D, Figuerola, J
Publicada:
1 sep 2020
Resumen:
Changes in environmental conditions, whether related or not to human activities, are continuously modifying the geographic distribution of vectors, which in turn affects the dynamics and distribution of vector-borne infectious diseases. Determining the main ecological drivers of vector distribution and how predicted changes in these drivers may alter their future distributions is therefore of major importance. However, the drivers of vector populations are largely specific to each vector species and region. Here, we identify the most important humanactivity-related and bioclimatic predictors affecting the current distribution and habitat suitability of the mosquito Culex pipiens and potential future changes in its distribution in Spain. We determined the niche of occurrence (NOO) of the species, which considers only those areas lying within the range of suitable environmental conditions using presence data. Although almost ubiquitous, the distribution of Cx. pipiens is mostly explained by elevation and the degree of urbanization but also, to a lesser extent, by mean temperatures during the wettest season and temperature seasonality. The combination of these predictors highlights the existence of a heterogeneous pattern of habitat suitability, with most suitable areas located in the southern and northeastern coastal areas of Spain, and unsuitable areas located at higher altitude and in colder regions. Future climatic predictions indicate a net decrease in distribution of up to 29.55%, probably due to warming and greater temperature oscillations. Despite these predicted changes in vector distribution, their effects on the incidence of infectious diseases are, however, difficult to forecast since different processes such as local adaptation to temperature, vector-pathogen interactions, and human-derived changes in landscape may play important roles in shaping the future dynamics of pathogen transmission.
Filiaciones:
Gangoso, L:
EBD CSIC, Dept Wetland Ecol, Estn Biol Donana, C Americo Vespucio 26, Seville 41092, Spain
Aragones, D:
EBD CSIC, Remote Sensing & Geog Informat Syst Lab LAST EBD, Estn Biol Donana, C Americo Vespucio 26, Seville 41092, Spain
Martinez-de la Puente, J:
EBD CSIC, Dept Wetland Ecol, Estn Biol Donana, C Americo Vespucio 26, Seville 41092, Spain
CIBER Epidemiol & Publ Hlth CIBERESP, C Monforte de Lemos 3-5, Madrid 28029, Spain
Lucientes, J:
AgriFood Inst Aragon IA2, Fac Vet Med, Anim Hlth Dept, C Miguel Servet 177, Zaragoza 50013, Spain
Delacour-Estrella, S:
AgriFood Inst Aragon IA2, Fac Vet Med, Anim Hlth Dept, C Miguel Servet 177, Zaragoza 50013, Spain
Pena, RE:
AgriFood Inst Aragon IA2, Fac Vet Med, Anim Hlth Dept, C Miguel Servet 177, Zaragoza 50013, Spain
Montalvo, T:
Consorci Sanitari Barcelona, Agencia Salut Publ Barcelona, Placa Lesseps 8, Barcelona 08023, Spain
CIBER Epidemiol & Publ Hlth CIBERESP, C Monforte de Lemos 3-5, Madrid 28029, Spain
Bueno-Mari, R:
Lab Lokimica, Dept Invest & Desarrollo I D, Poligono Ind El Bony,C-42,4, Valencia 46470, Spain
Bravo-Barriga, D:
Univ Extremadura, Vet Fac, Dept Anim Hlth, Av Univ S-N, Caceres 10003, Spain
Frontera, E:
Univ Extremadura, Vet Fac, Dept Anim Hlth, Av Univ S-N, Caceres 10003, Spain
Marques, E:
Serv Mosquito Control Badia Roses & Baix Ter, Placa Bruel 1, Empuriabrava 17486, Girona, Spain
Ruiz-Arrondo, I:
Hosp Univ San Pedro CIBIR, Ctr Rickettsiosis & Arthropod Borne Dis, C Piqueras 98, Logrono 26006, La Rioja, Spain
Munoz, A:
Quimera Biol Syst SL, C Olivo 14,Nave 6, Zaragoza 50171, Spain
Oteo, JA:
Hosp Univ San Pedro CIBIR, Ctr Rickettsiosis & Arthropod Borne Dis, C Piqueras 98, Logrono 26006, La Rioja, Spain
Miranda, MA:
Univ Balearic Isl UIB, Dept Biol, Appl Zool & Anim Conservat Grp, Ctra Valldemossa,Km 7-5, Palma De Mallorca 07122, Illes Balears, Spain
Barcelo, C:
Univ Balearic Isl UIB, Dept Biol, Appl Zool & Anim Conservat Grp, Ctra Valldemossa,Km 7-5, Palma De Mallorca 07122, Illes Balears, Spain
Vazquez, MSA:
Univ Santiago de Compostela, Fac Vet, Zoonoses & Publ Hlth, COPAR Res Grp, Av Carvallo Calero, Lugo 27002, Spain
Silva-Torres, MI:
Univ Santiago de Compostela, Fac Vet, Zoonoses & Publ Hlth, COPAR Res Grp, Av Carvallo Calero, Lugo 27002, Spain
Ferraguti, M:
Univ Extremadura, Dept Anat Cellular Biol & Zool, Av Elvas S-N, Badajoz 06006, Spain
Magallanes, S:
Univ Extremadura, Dept Anat Cellular Biol & Zool, Av Elvas S-N, Badajoz 06006, Spain
Muriel, J:
Univ Extremadura, Dept Anat Cellular Biol & Zool, Av Elvas S-N, Badajoz 06006, Spain
IPE CSIC, Inst Pirena Ecol, Av Nuestra Senora Victoria 16, Jaca 22700, Spain
Marzal, A:
Univ Extremadura, Dept Anat Cellular Biol & Zool, Av Elvas S-N, Badajoz 06006, Spain
Aranda, C:
IRTA UAB, Ctr Recerca Sanitat Anim, CReSA, Campus Univ Autonoma Barcelona, Barcelona 08193, Spain
Consell Comarcal Baix Llobregat, Serv Control Mosquits, N-340, Barcelona 08980, Spain
Ruiz, S:
Serv Mosquito Control Diputac Prov Huelva, Ctra Hosp Infanta Elena S-N, Huelva 21007, Spain
Gonzalez, MA:
NEIKER Basque Inst Agr Res & Dev Basque Res & Tec, Dept Anim Hlth, Berreaga 1, Derio 48160, Bizkaia, Spain
Morchon, R:
Univ Salamanca, Fac Pharm, Grp Anim & Human Dirofilariosis, Campus Miguel Unamuno,C Lic Mendez Nieto S-N, Salamanca 37007, Spain
Gomez-Barroso, D:
Inst Salud Carlos III, Ctr Nacl Epidemiol, C Monforte de Lemos 5, Madrid 28029, Spain
CIBER Epidemiol & Publ Hlth CIBERESP, C Monforte de Lemos 3-5, Madrid 28029, Spain
Figuerola, J:
EBD CSIC, Dept Wetland Ecol, Estn Biol Donana, C Americo Vespucio 26, Seville 41092, Spain
CIBER Epidemiol & Publ Hlth CIBERESP, C Monforte de Lemos 3-5, Madrid 28029, Spain
Green Submitted, Green Published, Green Accepted
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